As I write this, we are less than 90 minutes away from Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May facing the voters in a live TV studio. They will not share a stage, so it is not a debate as we would call it here in the US, but it is the closest thing the British voters will have to it.
So keep in mind, what follows will probably be rendered overcome by events in a matter of hours, or less.
That said, there does appear to be a diversions I’m on the posters as to the state of the race in the UK at present.
UK Polling Report has a list of the latest polls from over the weekend. More importantly, they also list how the polls differ in their methodologies… that’s where things get interesting.
ComRes have changed their turnout model, so it is based more on respondents’ demographics rather than how likely they claim they are to vote. The effect of this is essentially to downweight people who are younger and more working class on the assumption that the pattern of turnout that we’ve seen at past elections remains pretty steady. ICM have a method that seems very similar in its aim (I’m not sure of the technicalities) – weighting the data so that the pattern of turnout by age & social grade is the same as in 2015.
As it happens, the two polls that use 2015 E-day demographics are also the only ones that still show the Conservatives with double-digit leads.
If ComRes and ICM are right, then the Tories can still expect a very good night, and quite possibly reach a majority of 100. The problem is, there has been a referendum between now and 2015 – a referendum with voter turnout abobs the prior election. So that should give Theresa May fans pause.
Then again, the events that take place in a little over an hour from now will likely scramble all of the numbers anyway.