According to YouGov, the answer is Yes (UK Polling Report).

The YouGov’s weekly poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 44%, LAB 31%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 6%, GRN 2%, down to a thirteen point Conservative lead compared to sixteen points in the week (and twenty-point-plus leads when the election was first called). It suggests that the mid-week YouGov/Times poll was picking up the start of a trend, rather than just a blip…

One thing that is interesting is Labour don’t knows. Looking at the entrails of the YouGov polls, it looks as if some 2015 Labour voters who were saying “don’t know” a week ago are now saying Labour. When YouGov were showing those twenty-point leads around 20-25% of people who voted Labour in 2015 were saying they didn’t know what they would do at the election, in the last couple of polls that has dropped to 11%.

If YouGov is right, then my earlier projection of a Tory majority of 60 looks a lot better. Of course, I may have to rethink my LibDem prediction (48 seats). Still, it’s remarkable that for all the talk about Jeremy Corbyn, he would – by this poll – do just as well as Ed Miliband in 2015.

Then again, ICM also has a new poll. Their answer to the title question is: Not So Fast (UK Polling Report).

There is also a new ICM poll for the Sun on Sunday. Topline figures there are CON 47%(-1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 8%(+1), GRN 4%(+1), conducted “at the end of the week”. Changes are from the ICM poll at the start of the week. While the Tories are down one and Labour up one (and the Conservative lead therefore dips below the twenty point mark), it’s a far smaller drop than we’ve seen in the YouGov polling this week.

In addition to ICM staying firmly in landslide territory, its poll does point to a shift away from the remarkable (and remarkably wrong) consistency of 2015. The pollsters may be less shy about disagreeing with each other this time, asking yet another interesting dimension to this fascinating election.

  • I was gonna ask — is this *really* Labour coming back down to earth, or is someone playing with the polls a bit to predict a best possible outcome for Labour after the Tories are pretty much making the case that Labour can’t lead?

    • The Jaded JD

      The only ones with an interest in making Labour look better in the polls are the Conservatives, because the lead the polls have shown *them* with will depress their turnout. The idea of Prime Minister Corbyn is so repulsive to everyone but the Corbynista Kool-Aid guzzlers that Labour (and the minor parties) are emphasizing that Labour cannot win even harder than the Conservatives are emphasizing how awful a prime minister he would be.

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