The latest CNU Wason Center survey is out and shows former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie with an indisputable lead at 38% — a five point lift from previous Wason Center polling suggesting Riggleman supporters have flocked to the Gillespie banners in a significant way.

The poll comes days after embattled PWC Chairman Corey Stewart’s attacks against Ed Gillespie last week, labeling the frontrunner as a “cuckservative” in a move that kicked off widespread condemnations from Republicans across Virginia — including calls for Stewart to resign.

According to CNU Wason, Gillespie is at a commanding 38 versus Stewart who hovers at just 11 points, while State Senator Frank Wagner is at a remarkable 10 points (given that his campaign has not really even begun to move yet).

Also notable from the CNU Wason Center poll?  State Senator Jill Vogel holds an ever-so-slight advantage against… Delegate Glenn Davis, who is your second place contender by a margin of 4 points.  State Senator Bryce Reeves remains in third place, but it is important to note that the tally stands at 17-13-10 — enough to separate Vogel and Reeves, but not enough to suggest that any one candidate is running away with the race.

What is clear in these numbers?  The long overplayed “e-mail scandal” between Reeves and Vogel has hurt Reeves.  Moreover, it is remarkable that both Stewart and Wagner have not broken through the 10% barrier — suggesting that 10% is more of a floor than it is evidence of an actual substance produced by a campaign.

More interesting is Perrielo’s dramatic 11-point rise in the Wason Center poll, including the sharp divisions between 2016 Clinton supporters (putatively supporting Northam) and Sanders supporters (putatively supporting Perriello).

“Just a few months ago, nobody expected to be saying that the real action in this primary would be on the Democratic side, but that’s where it is,” said Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center.

And the poll suggests divisions in the Democratic Party highlighted during the 2016 presidential primary are carrying over into the gubernatorial race.  From the WaPo:

“Just a few months ago, nobody expected to be saying that the real action in this primary would be on the Democratic side, but that’s where it is,” said Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center.

And the poll suggests divisions in the Democratic Party highlighted during the 2016 presidential primary are carrying over into the gubernatorial race.

Poll respondents who chose Hillary Clinton in the presidential primary back Northam over Perriello by a 34-25 margin. Those who preferred Bernie Sanders favor Perriello by a 32-21 margin. Clinton defeated Sanders by nearly 30 percentage points in Virginia.

Insofar as the Virginia gubernatorial nod, there is not a scintilla of evidence demonstrating that we even have a race right now.  Gillespie is marching towards a coronation in the absence of any serious policy debate from his challengers — a good sign for what is shaping up to be a contentious 2017 general election.

  • BrianKirwin

    Does it bother anyone that 20% said they didn’t vote in the Presidential election?